The Cohort Replacement Effect

It's not as exciting as a social revolution where change seems to happen overnight, but it is nonetheless a powerful force. Similar to my post yesterday, Matt Yglesias talks about how simple cohort replacement makes the social conservative position on gay rights a losing battle over time. If you're a numbers person, according to Kevin Drum, America gets ~1% more gay friendly every year. 

It'll be interesting to see how these wedge issues will affect the general election in November. As we all know, putting the gay marriage ban on the ballots of many states in 2004 was one of the things that increased the evangelical turnout and ultimately gave George W. another term.
 

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