Here is a guest Freakanomics post from J.D. Eggleston, a father who did some great work while helping his daughter out with her homework. With pretty strong data to back up his assertions, J.D. contends that Meteorologists are very poor predictors of the weather. The data suggest that only next day forecasts are somewhat reliable, 2-3 day forecasts are just ok, and anything longer than 3 days is completely useless.

Some quotes from real Meteorologists and Station Managers:

• “We have no idea what’s going to happen [in the weather] beyond three days out.”
• “There’s not an evaluation of accuracy in hiring meteorologists. Presentation takes precedence over accuracy.”
• “All that viewers care about is the next day. Accuracy is not a big deal to viewers.”

So while this is all very interesting, it may not come as a complete surprise to many.  The really interesting question is: Why does the public continue to listen to these horribly inaccurate predictions?

Part of the answer might be that people just want something to track, regardless of the accuracy. I sometimes do this if I have something important planned outdoors. Another reason, as stated by one of the Station Managers, could be that people simply don't care.  Most people only care about the weather 1-3 days out anyway, so the inaccuracy of the 4-7 day forecasts probably doesn't affect many people. Regardless of the reason, one thing is certainly true - meteorologists will continue to pump out these inaccurate 7-day forecasts.  No one wants to be the only show in town without a 7-day forecast.